Stress Testing an Intraday Strategy Through Monte Carlo Methods

This is an intraday ES strategy that I was testing for a client. The client was not interested in it due to the low frequency of trades, hence I may post it for others to view. It shows how a strategy was proved through stress testing and looking for optimal conditions to apply the strategy. The steps for strategy development are below:

Strategy Development Example – Andrew Bannerman – 1.28.2018

Follow a scientific process in which a strategy is developed and stress tested before live incubation /

Tools used: R Statistical Programming Language

Strategy Development Procedure:
1. General view, general statistics, tail risk
2. Initial Back Testing
3. Walk Forward Analysis (Cross validation) , Rolling and Fixed.
4. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (Random adjustments 0 to 50% parameter change, n times)
5. Draw down expectation (sample without replacement net trade result, n times)
6. Re-sample original time series (Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping, n times) and run strategy over new
7. Market Random Test (Test if strategy beats buying randomly)
8. Noise Test (Adding random fixed % to open, high, low, close, simulate back test n times)
9. Strategy Seasonality
10. Layering non-correlated strategies

Please see attached .pdf.

Download – Intraday Trading Strategy Development Using R – pdf

Let me know if you have any questions!